After a huge day of gains yesterday, the Euro finally calmed down overnight and broke through a short term reversal pattern this morning ahead of the ECB Interest Rate announcement which is followed by Mario Draghi's press conference at 8:30AM ET.
I do not feel there is much upside risk in the EURUSD for the ECB announcement. The market expects Draghi's comments to stay consistent with statements already made in the previous announcement and in the past several weeks. This would include expectations that he will reiterate the ECB's plan to carry out the QE program to its fullest extent, which would take any "taper talk" off the table. Aside from the possible risk of revisions for future growth revisions, I expect the EURUSD to retrace back into the 1.10-1.09 range today. Therefore, we are currently short the EURUSD at 1.11507 with our stop just above the 1.12 level at 1.12007 looking to risk 50 pips to make 50 pips (1:1 Risk Reward) on the trade and possibly look for more reward on the trade.